South-East Asian Bonds Seek 8 Straight Year Record High

Southeast Asian companies are on track for an eighth straight year of record bond sales as local investors provide protection from a repeat of 1997, when the region’s currencies collapsed and global banks fled.

Bond sales will rise as much as 20 percent from last year’s $101 billion of local and dollar-denominated notes, according to CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. (CIMB), the top underwriter of domestic debt in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean. DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and Maybank Kim Eng Holdings Ltd. see a repeat of last year’s 48 percent gain. PTT Global Chemical Pcl (PTTGC) of Thailand’s and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the nation’s third-biggest lender, are lining up to sell debt.

The Thai baht is among the top five holdings in the Asia-Pacific Sovereign Open plan at Kokusai Asset Management Co., the manager of Japan’s largest mutual fund. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

Enlarge image Record Bond Sales Showing Lessons of 1997 Learned

Nomura Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co have set up new debt capital markets units to focus on Southeast Asia in the past five months. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

The combination of higher yields, faster economic growth, and an expanding pool of wealthy investors is proving irresistible to the world’s biggest fund managers. New bond issues increased five-fold since 2000 as Asean governments transformed markets since the crisis 15 years ago, when tumbling currencies froze credit, forcing Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea to borrow more than $110 billion from the International Monetary Fund.

Bloomberg

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View the original article: http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130301/south-east-asian-bonds-seek-8-straight-year-record-high/



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India face ‘more than likely” Risk of Downgrade

Despite Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s promise to put India’s fiscal house in order in his latest budget plan, ratings agency Fitch said the country’s credit rating – which is teetering on the brink of ‘junk’ status – will more than likely be downgraded, citing weakness in Asia’s third largest economy’s macro outlook.

“The reality is it [credit rating] is on negative outlook – so that bias suggests it’s more than likely we will downgrade – that says it all,” Art Woo, director, sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings told CNBC Asia’s “The Call” on Friday – a day after Chidambaram presented a pragmatic budget in which he announced a fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent for the new fiscal year beginning April 1.

“If you look at the totality of measures that have been announced over the last six months, there have been some positive elements…but obviously the macro economic backdrop has weakened,” he added.

CNBC

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New Year marks fresh beginning in Pak, China Friendship: Masood Khalid

BEIJING: Pakistan's Ambassador to China Masood Khalid has said the Chinese year of the snake this year, marks a fresh beginning for the friendship between China and Pakistan that will continue to prosper in future."Let's wish Sino-Pakistan relations scale new heights and our bilateral cooperation is further enhanced," said Ambassador Khalid while addressing a large gathering here at the Pakistan Embassy on Thursday evening to mark the Chinese Spring Festival and the New Year celebrations that will run up to the Pakistan Day March 23.The function was attended by senior Chinese government officials including Ambassador Luo Zhaohui, Director General, Asia Department, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Madam Li Min, Vice-Mayor Yibin City, Sichuan Province; Ambassador Lu Shumin, Vice-President, China's People's Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA); Wang Shaofeng, Vice President, CWE; Chen Zuming, Vice President, China Association for International Friendly Contact (CAIFC); Zhang Huling, Director Communist Party of China and others.Wishing a very happy New Year to the government and Chinese friends, he said, as we start the New Year, both China and Pakistan can reflect on an outstanding last year, which saw expanded two-way trade, strengthened cultural ties and enhanced people to people contact.Ambassador Khalid pointed out that Pakistani people...

View the original article: http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/general-news/108566-new-year-marks-fresh-beginning-in-pak-china-friendship-masood-khalid.html



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US lauds Pakistan's excellent cooperation on transportation routes

WASHINGTON: As Washington looks to meet the logistic challenge of removing war equipment from Afghanistan with 2014 drawdown, an American official has praised excellent cooperation from Pakistan, whose ground lines will provide a key overland route for retrograde of the military gear.Appearing for his confirmation hearing as Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defence for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Alan F. Estevez updated the Senate Armed Services Committee of the progress towards accomplishing the return of equipment under agreement between the two countries."We have a number of proof of principles, as we call them, to move equipment through Pakistan. They're ongoing right now. Two of them have been successfully completed," he said in response to a question by chairman of the panel Senator Carl Levin.The purpose of the proof of principles, Estevez explained, is to hone out the processes with the Pakistanis, with their customs enforcement, with their port agencies and with their trucking companies, in order to facilitate an increased volume of those movements, but slow, steady progress.Copyright APP (Associated Press of Pakistan), 2013

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USD/SGD – Finance Minister says No Rate Cuts

No stimulus needed. Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam was clear in his words. Instead of non-committal rhetoric such as “if necessary”, “when needed”, Tharman was clear in his stance and by extension the stance of Monetary Authority of Singapore. The finance chief of the city state said that there isn’t an “output gap”, which suggest that further stimulus or “easy monetary policy” will not help in Singapore’s economic condition, but merely result in higher rate of inflation.

In this regard, the Finance Minister is absolutely correct. It seems that the recent dip we’ve seen in Singapore’s economy may stem from a structural issue of the economy – producing goods that nobody wants. And that is not something stimulus on Singapore’s own economy can help. As such, a proper call of action would be to enhance productivity within Singapore – e.g. producing better quality goods, or lowering COGS/ increasing efficiency to match those of international standards. These measures should theoretically have a pro SGD effect in the long run, which will help Singapore combat rising inflation which is plaguing the Asia region.

Hourly Chart

It seems that USD/SGD did not receive the memo, with SGD actually weakening despite Tharman categorically reject a weaker SGD in the near future. Price did head lower, breaking 1.237 floor yesterday, but that was due to global optimism post Bernanke QE endorsement, which weakened USD significantly. Evidence of USD influence can be observed from the subsequent rebound after the US Senate failed to pass 2 bills aimed to push sequester cuts back – strengthening USD during American trading hours. Price has since pulled back from the Asian session high, but is still supported strongly by Kumo’s Senkou Span A and the interim floor 1.237. Though price is around 20 pips lower from the high, Kumo still look poised to turn bullish with a twist, and price is certainly not far away from another test of breaking above Senkou Span B for yet another move towards 1.24.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart shows that bullish bias remains the theme of 2013, with a bullish Kumo twist in early January. The Kumo may also provide support for price action, nudging and pushing it higher towards 1.24. Even if Kumo is breached, the rising trendline since Mid Dec 2012 may assist further to keep price lifted.

It is important to note that USD/SGD’s ascension has been taking place when MAS has been silence about its policy. In the past 2 months, we’ve seen Central Banks from various countries such as Korea, Thailand, and India coming out to say that they will “ease if necessary”. By simply staying mute, MAS will be shown in a bullish light, which should strengthen SGD. The reason perhaps is that market never believe that MAS will weaken and adjust SGD’s trading band – SGD version of rate policy, due to the high inflation rates in Singapore. As such, Tharman’s open declaration of no rate cuts is not surprising to the market, and is regarded as par for the course. On top of this, Singapore is aiming to cool its asset prices with higher taxes and stamp duties, which will almost certainly drive foreign funds away. As the appreciation of SGD for the past few years has been due to increased heavy overseas funds, a push of funds outside of Singapore will have the opposite effect, weakening SGD.

Going by the same argument, if US sequester cuts result in heavy erosion of market confidence, we could see a revival of SGD in Q2 2013 as global investors may want to liquidate their US assets and transfer into Singapore for safety. However this time round the in-flow may be even more aggressive as investors will want to beat the dateline before increase in stamp duties and taxes kick in. With so many permutations of factors at play, USD/SGD is certainly going for a bumpy ride, but one thing is for sure – MAS’s stance will play less and less of a role if it continues to keep quiet in the months to come.

More Links:

EUR / USD – Eases Back Under 1.31

USD/CAD – Higher as US & Canada Release Mixed Numbers

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Business Sales Manager (based in Pakistan)

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Required B-tech Mech/ Civil fresher/ experienced for Reliance Industries in Gujrat

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Manager - Civil

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Pakistan for long-term ties with Russia

ISLAMABAD Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf has said that there is a national consensus in Pakistan on building strong relationship with the Russian Federation and government attaches great importance to its relations with Russia.

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Indonesian Inflation Rising – Rate Cut by Central Bank Unlikely

Indonesia’s headline inflation rate is forecast to have continued accelerating in February, economists and a high-level government official said on Thursday.

Inflation already accelerated in January, with the consumer price index rising 4.57 percent year-on-year to the highest rate in three months. That compared to a 4.3 percent rise in December.

January’s rise was attributed to supply disruptions following major wet season rains and an increase in electricity tariffs for certain households.

A Reuters survey of several economists produced an average projection for February inflation at 4.81 percent. That rate would still be within Bank Indonesia’s target of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent this year.

The survey also predicted core inflation, which excludes items subject to price volatility, at 4.35 percent, slightly changed from the previous month’s 4.32 percent.

JakartaGlobe

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AUD/USD – 5 month low Chinese PMI unable to dent price

Chinese official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.1 after seasonal adjustments. Though a figure still represent growth, the growth rate has cooled down significantly, climbing down from January’s 50.4 and clocking in the weakest read in 5 months. New orders fell, indicating that domestic demand is declining, which should be a cause of concern for heavy exporters to China such as Australia and New Zealand. Strangely, AUD/USD remain muted after the news and in fact rallied higher shortly after. In comparison, Asian stocks indices fell, though a major portion of the fall can be attributed to the failure to pass bills in the US Senate aimed to postpone the sequesters once more.

15 Minutes Chart

Without further information, the only logical explanation for the rally in AUD/USD would be to assume that prices are simply experiencing a technical rebound from 1.02 low, after falling heavily during Europe/US trading hours yesterday. If this is a pure technical move, then the likelihood of price able to enter and break the bearish Kumo is lower. 1.023 which is the lower band of the consolidation area 1.023-1.0245 will also provide further resistance to push price lower, agreeing with Stochastic readings which has accelerated quickly into the Overbought region. However, it remains to be seen whether price will correct sharply into the descending channel, or find support along Channel Top. Alternatively, should price push above 1.0245, the bearish bias may need to change to a bullish one.

Daily Chart

From the point of view of Daily, the descending channel is still in play, agreeing with Short-term bearish momentum. However, the leeway for bullish reversal would need to see price breaking not only above the Channel Top, but preferably above 1.035 Dec swing low as a confirmation of bullish bias. Stochastic readings is looking a bit confused, as Stoch/Signal lines were threatening to cross at one point but is currently unlikely seeing how price is heading lower now. If short-term bullishness strengthen, we could still see price testing Channel Top without breaking bearish bias.

More Links:

EUR / USD – Eases Back Under 1.31

AUD/USD – Unsteady as Aussie Data Disappoints

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DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY

BIAS: While 92.40-50 supports we should see further progress to 92.96-12 initially and later 93.37



Resistance:... 92.84........ 92.96-12.... 93.37... 93.53-66

Support:........ 92.45-49.... 92.20........ 92.00... 91.79



MAIN ANALYSIS: Price rallied though just a little above expectations and was followed by a correction. It looks as if it is complete but allow for 92.40-50. From here we should now see upward progress to 92.96-12 - I suspect the higher projection for a correction of around 35 points (maybe bouncing from the 92.76-80 area) and then rally back to 93.12 and later to 93.37. From this high a correction of around 20-25 points is then required before heading higher to the 94.10-40 area. A deeper correction should then develop.



COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 92.35-40 would see this move back through 92.20 to the 92.00 corrective low at least - potentially 91.79 in a recycling. Also note the 91.55-60 area…



For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.



Good trading

Ian Copsey



HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG

Attached Files

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Fisher Wants Fed to End QE

With the economy starting to improve, the Federal Reserve should begin to end its bond purchases, Richard Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday.

“I think it’s really time to taper this off,” Fisher said. “It doesn’t mean stop it. We’re not going from Wild Turkey to cold turkey. But I do think we’ve run up to the limits of the efficacy of what we’re doing. It’s a good time to do it.”

While the bond-buying program has served a purpose, the Fed official compared the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly asset purchases to a narcotic — “monetary ritalin” — warning that there’s a risk the markets and the economy become too addicted.

Fisher has been a critic of the Fed’s easy monetary policy warning that it won’t do much to support job creation and may actually hurt the economic recovery.

The economy is improving, Fisher said, but job creation isn’t picking up fast enough.

CNBC

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At A Pakistani Mobile Library, Kids Can Check Out Books, And Hope

Virtually none of the public schools in and around the capital Islamabad have libraries.

View the original article: http://www.topix.com/world/pakistan/2013/02/at-a-pakistani-mobile-library-kids-can-check-out-books-and-hope



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Senate Bills to Postpone Sequester Rejected

Automatic federal budget cuts of $85 billion looked certain to kick in Friday after a pair of bills to replace them failed in the Senate on Thursday.

Neither a Democratic nor a Republican bill aimed at replacing the so-called sequester was able to get enough support to win a test vote on Thursday.

While senators from both parties hadn’t expected passage, the bills represented a last-ditch legislative effort to replace the across-the-board cuts to domestic and military spending.

The Republican bill, which would have given President Barack Obama the opportunity to pick which cuts he’d make, garnered just 38 “yes” votes; the Democratic bill, which would have replaced the cuts with alternative spending cuts and tax hikes on the wealthy, received 51 “yes” votes; 60 were needed to cut off debate.

U.S. markets on Thursday shrugged off the budget drama in Washington, even as the White House and economists warned about the effects of the cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.15% lost 21 points, after coming within striking distance of its all-time closing high set in October 2007. See Market Snapshot.

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View the original article: http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130228/senate-bills-to-postpone-sequester-rejected/



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