Friday, June 28, 2013

EUR/USD Remains at Four-Month Lows on Cyprus, Italy Worries

[B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/eurusd-daily/"]EUR/USD[/URL] continues to struggle, as the pair was trading in the mid-1.27 range in Thursday’s European session, itsl lowest level since November 2012. All eyes are on Cyprus this morning as the country reopens its banks for the first time in almost two weeks. Fearing a bank run, the government has imposed strict capital controls. The political paralysis in Italy shows no signs of letting up, as coalition negotiations ended in failure on Wednesday. In economic news, German data was a mix. Retail Sales beat the estimate, but Unemployment Change was dismal. In the US, today’s highlight is Pending Home Sales. In the US, this week’s numbers have not looked sharp, and the market will be hoping for better news from today’s highlight, which is Unemployment Claims.[/B]

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

[B]EUR/USD Technical[/B]



[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar dipped below the 1.28 line and consolidated at 1.2793. The pair has moved lower in the European session.[*]Current range: 1.2746 to 1.2805.[/LIST]

Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-28png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-28png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL]



[LIST][*]Below: 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2805, 1.2880, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130 and 1.3170.[*][B]1.2746 is a weak support level. The round number of 1.27 is stronger.[/B][*][B]1.2805 is providing resistance as the pair loses ground.[/B][/LIST]

Cyprus bailout, Italian political crisis weighing on markets– click on the graph to enlarge.

[B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B]



[LIST][*]7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. -0.5%. Actual 0.4%[*]8:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. -2K. Actual 13K[*]9:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Exp. 3.2%. Actual 3.1%[*]9:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Exp. -0.7%. Actual -0.9%[*]9:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Exp. 43.7 points[*][B]12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 340K. [/B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-trading-the-us-unemployment-claims-8/"][B]See how to trade this event with EUR[/B][B]/USD[/B][/URL][*]12:30 US Final GDP. Exp. 0.5%[*]12:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Exp. 0.9%[*]13:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 56.5 points[*]14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -85B[/LIST]

For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I]

[B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B]



[LIST][*][B]Markets Nervously Monitor Cyprus[/B]: Despite the fact that a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-deal-announced-full-of-uncertainties-eurusd-unconvinced/"]deal regarding Cyprus was announced[/URL] on Monday, the lack of details and implications has left the markets jittery. The deal has not brought calm to the small Eurozone member, which has been at the center of a financial crisis over a EUR10 billion bailout. The country’s banks are to reopen on Thursday, after being tightly shut for almost two weeks. Fearing a bank run, the government has imposed strict controls, including limiting withdrawals to 300 euros a day, and a ban on cashing checks. The size of the haircut imposed on accounts of over 100,000 euros is still unknown, and there are rumors that large depositors could lose up to 40% of their savings. The euro has taken it on the chin this week, dropping over two cents against the dollar.[*][B]Ill-timed comments by Eurogroup head[/B]: As if the crisis in Cyprus wasn’t causing enough of a headache, the head of the Eurogroup, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, practically explained to Reuters and the Financial Times that [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-cypriot-bail-in-model-is-not-necessarily-a-one-off-eurusd-close-to-2013-lows/"]the Cypriot model could be copied[/URL]. He later backtracked on these comments, but the damage is already done: holders of large accounts in the euro-zone might feel less confident about the safety of their bank deposits. This damage to confidence has also contributed to the euro’s slump.[*][/LIST]



View the original article: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_forum/blogs/yohay/16458-eur-usd-remains-four-month-lows-cyprus-italy-worries.html



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